Americans accustomed to rising prices on all kinds of consumer goods are about to experience sticker shock in a corner of the economy that's boomed over the past few years.
From marble quarried in Italy to washing machines built and assembled all over the world, the products and materials that furnish and model our homes are global - and about to get a lot more expensive, if they are even available as the impact of tariffs kick in.
After several years of blockbuster growth in the remodeling and design business, the White House's erratic rollout of tariffs aimed at reshaping global trade is already taking a toll. The industry has already swallowed price increases and made supply-chain shifts where possible, professionals say, and higher prices will now hit consumers, likely slowing growth in a part of the economy that's made up of lots of small, even mom-and-pop, businesses.
"Over the past three weeks, I've had three projects say, 'Hey, we're going to pause on things,'" said Kevin Twitty, a Portland, Oregon-based designer who works all over the country. "It's not necessarily just because of tariffs. It's all the other things that the tariffs are affecting, like people's stock portfolios, their potential raises at work, their bonuses that they might be paid out throughout the year."
Like many design professionals who spoke with USA TODAY, Twitty has been hearing from suppliers of everything from vanities to tile that they are raising prices, cancelling shipments, or still trying to make decisions. As of now, he reckons the cost of a renovation or remodel is likely to increase about 25%.
Case Architects & Remodelers, a design firm based in the Washington, DC metro area, has estimated that tariffs will add to the cost of projects by low single-digit percentages, said its executive vice president, Bill Millholland. But that does not include the cost of appliances, which could add significantly to the overall expense.
Like many other industries, the design and remodeling landscape is made up of products that defy easy categorization.
"Every aspect of home decor has something related to their product coming internationally. You know, it's a global economy, really," said Barbara Karpf, founder and president of DecoratorsBest, one of the largest online suppliers of products like textiles and wallpaper traditionally only available to tradespeople.
Now, even products made domestically by American companies are having to raise prices because their input materials may be imported, Karpf said.
Another example: roofers may be relatively insulated from new tariffs, said Andrew Prchal, president and co-founder of Gunner, a national roofing, siding and window company. The majority of American roofs are made of asphalt shingles, which are manufactured domestically. But the fasteners used in most projects are made in China, and those prices have risen nearly 70% in anticipation of tariffs, Prchal said.
Design and remodeling professionals who spoke with USA TODAY said that there's very little low-hanging fruit left when it comes to shifting their supply chains.
"We were affected big time when COVID was around and that caused a very similar issue where things were just not in stock," said Michael Alladawi, co-founder and CEO of Revive Real Estate. "We kind of made a conscious effort to source things that are more locally available."
Revive works with a network of contractors across several states to help homeowners figure out the most strategic upgrades and renovations to make as they get ready to list their homes for sale.
This time around, the company is trying to proactively stockpile things like cabinetry, appliances, and other supplies, Alladawi said, to "have a little bit of a runway" that smooths out the cost increases, but that will only go so far.
Karpf, of DecoratorsBest, notes that the entire industry started transitioning away from China under the first Trump administration.
"Last year, I spoke with various vendors to see what they were doing. Everybody just said, well, you know, very little comes from China," Karpf said. "Now we have different supply chains and different places where we actually purchase the finished goods as well. So the companies were prepared for these things. They weren't prepared for tariffs on our trading partners and our allies."
Because of the ongoing uncertainty around which countries will face which levies and how that will trickle through the industry, it's far too early to guess how consumer patterns and choices will be impacted.
Need-to-have items, like roofs, will be more insulated than nice-to-have upgrades, Prchal thinks.
In a similar vein, consumers may become more strategic, said Nick Nichols, the Chicago-based owner of two businesses, Imparfait Design Studio and KitchenLab Interiors. Households might be more willing to do a particular project, say a high-ROI upgrade like a bathroom, than a whole-house remodel, he thinks.
Also unclear: whether more Americans will want to go the do-it-yourself route. In response to a USA TODAY request for an interview, a Home Depot spokesperson emailed, "As this situation is evolving, we are monitoring developments closely. Over half of our products are sourced in the U.S. We are our customers' advocate for value and will continue to work closely with our suppliers to navigate this environment."
Suren Gopalakrishnan, a design supply-chain veteran, sees some upsides. He thinks consumers will become more thoughtful with their purchases, and an era of increasingly cheap and disposable home goods might be replaced with higher-quality, longer-lasting ones.
Gopalakrishnan co-founded MakersPalm, which helps brands and designers, especially artisanal ones, develop products and supply chains, after many years managing such processes for Anthropologie. He sees the coming years as a "re-set" period.
"Every change is hard. But you know, I still think it'll be fine," he said. He points to the initial panicked period of the COVID-19 lockdowns, when everyone thought the worst, only to discover that Americans stuck at home wanted nothing more than to upgrade their spaces - and had the savings to do it.
One thing is very clear: businesses across the industry really want tariffs to stop being a moving target. Alladawi of Revive Real Estate says some of the price increases he's seen so far are simply knee-jerk reactions made out of fear.
"Our contractor network is scared," he said. "Even when the prices haven't gone up yet, in some instances they know they will and they're scared they're gonna get caught in the middle. And so they're kind of being proactive and I understand that."
"We have 10 employees across both companies and we just want to be able to plan so that we can continue to hire," Nichols said. "Small business is the biggest driver of employment in this country and as a small business owner, what we'd like to know is what's going to happen this year and next year, and have a stable political climate."
Perhaps the only certainty in this uneasy time? "The dirty little secret of remodeling is that prices never go down," Millholland said. "I can promise you, after this is all over, it's not like everybody's going to say, oh, we're past it now. Our prices are going down 20%. That's not going to happen, or at least never has in my career, and I've been doing this for 35 years."