Mock drafts successfully predicted several early picks of the 2025 NFL draft during the first round at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. However, their accuracy declined significantly after those initial selections.
The Tennessee Titans choosing quarterback Cam Ward as the No. 1 pick was expected, but the blockbuster trade between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cleveland Browns for Travis Hunter at the fifth pick surprised many.
How did the remainder of the predictions fare?
We analyzed 30 mock drafts published a week before the draft from various sources utilizing different methodologies, including traditional research, AI, and mock draft simulators. Below, you'll find the comparison between those projections and the actual first-round outcomes.
The consensus among NFL draft experts was accurate in predicting the order of the draft's first seven picks:
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Approximately half of the 30 mock drafts anticipated the Carolina Panthers selecting Linebacker Jalon Walker from Georgia. When this prediction didn't materialize, subsequent inaccuracies cascaded down the draft board. Only one mock draft, by USA TODAY Sports and the USA TODAY Network experts, correctly predicted the Atlanta Falcons' choice of Walker at No. 15.
Following the eighth pick, there was a notable decrease in consensus among mock drafts due to differing opinions on quarterback Shedeur Sanders as a prospect. Some predicted he would go second to the Cleveland Browns, while others placed him at ninth with the New Orleans Saints. Another scenario suggested he might fall to the Pittsburgh Steelers at the 21st pick. The actual draft will reveal tonight whether Sanders goes in the second or third round.
Here's how the 30 mock draft predictions aligned with the reality of the rest of Thursday night's draft. Note: Several players were top contenders for multiple teams.
While the Seattle Seahawks' selection of Grey Zabel was the only entirely accurate pick, the mock drafters correctly identified the positions teams aimed to address. For instance, the Indianapolis Colts drafted a tight end from the Big Ten, but it turned out to be Tyler Warren instead of Colston Loveland, whom the Bears selected at No. 10.
The 2025 NFL Draft will continue tonight at 7 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. The remaining TV schedule is as follows:
Among the 30 mock drafts analyzed for this article, some organizations conducted multiple drafts with different authors or methods:
◾ April 15: USA TODAY using ChatGPT | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
◾ April 16: VSIN | Pro Football Network | Pro Football Rumors | SleeperCFB | Rotowire | College Football Network | USA TODAY | In Between Media | The Huddle | The Athletic
◾ April 17: Pro Football Network | SI | Underdog Fantasy | CBS Sports | Outkick | Fantasy Pros | Cat Scratch Reader | NFL.com | SI based on betting odds | Draft countdown | The Palm Beach Post | USA TODAY using a mock draft simulator
◾ April 18: USA TODAY | USA TODAY using Google Gemini | Fox Sports | NFL.com | Daft on Draft | SB Nation